Valentines by the numbers (2018)

According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. consumers will spend nearly $20 BILLION on Valentines this year. (More than half of celebrants will give candy as a gift, but most spending will be on jewelry.)

While love may be in the proverbial air, young adults are not rushing down the aisle. Median age at first marriage continues to reach new record highs (now 29.5 for men and 27.4 for women).

While age at first marriage has been increasing, and it is incredibly difficult to get an accurate measurement of the rate of divorce, by all accounts divorce rates are falling and may be at a 40-year low. By Census Bureau measures, divorce rates peaked in the years changes in divorce laws that occurred in the mid 1970s, but then leveled off and fell slightly. Some of this trend can be attributed to lower marriage rates (fewer marriages lead to fewer divorces), but some is likely a result of people waiting longer to get married in the first place.

Longer life expectancy and lower divorce rates mean that marriage duration has (on average) increased in recent years. 80 percent of marriages last at least 5 years, and 68 percent last 10 years or more, according to data compiled by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention based on the National Survey of Family Growth (2006-2010). This is an increase from the 2002 survey, in which 78 percent of marriages last at least 5 years and two thirds last 10 years or more.

Data link roundup (week of June 14, 2013)

The week's top data analysis links...
This week's theme: June is generally the busiest month for weddings,* so let's talk about marriage.


DELAYED MARRIAGE

The report and website Knot Yet is a joint project of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, and The Relate Institute. The analysis attempts to explain the benefits and costs of delayed marriage based on data from the Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, and other sources.

Examples include:
Delayed marriage is associated with lower divorce rate.
Earlier marriage is associated with higher reported happiness.
Delayed marriage is associated with higher family earnings.
Earlier marriage is associated with lower rates of 20-something depression.


REBOUND MARRIAGE

After falling during the recession years, the number of marriages in the U.S. is up (2.118 million in 2011 compared with 2.096 million in 2010) and the rate of marriages per 1,000 population has stabilized, according to the latest data from CDC.

ASSORTATIVE MATING TO THE EXTREME?

We have evidence that people pair up with others of similar socio-economic and educational background.

Neal Caren, of Scatterplot, takes this theory a step further. Caren analyzed American Community Survey data and found that sociologists marry... other sociologists. (If they get married at all... and if their spouse has a college degree... But still, "both male and female sociology majors are 3.7 times more likely to be married to other sociology majors compared to a random major." According to Caren:

"what it really means is among the population of male sociologist who are married to a female with a college degree, 8% are married to someone who was a sociology major. This completely excludes the not currently married (40% of sociology majors of 25), and those folks married to someone without a college degrees (33% of married sociology majors)"

BEST CHART CARTOON OF THE WEEK

Source: Randy Glasbergen

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT...

6 things you need to know about the 2012 U.S. population estimates.

Delaying the wedding bells (stats on declining marriage rates and marriage differentials by socio-economic status)

Let the wedding bells ring! (Stats on marriage by month, by state, and trends in marriage and divorce)


*Note: August sometimes has more weddings than June, but August is a longer month...

Love and marriage

In honor of St. Valentine...

MARRIAGE TRENDS

According to recent news, the longest-married couple in the United States tied the knot more than 80 years ago.

Valentine image source

While this may be an unusual feat, marriage duration has (on average) increased in recent years. This trend persists despite the fact that marriage rates are declining.

80 percent of marriages last at least 5 years, and 68 percent last 10 years or more, according to data compiled by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention based on the National Survey of Family Growth (2006-2010).

This is an increase from the 2002 survey, in which 78 percent of marriages last at least 5 years and two thirds last 10 years or more.

OTHER VITAL EVENTS

According to many news sources, condom sales are highest in February (in the US and in India, for example). However, a National Institutes of Health study shows that increased condom sales do not necessarily translate to increased condom usage.

Nielsen research notes a corollary trend: an increase in sales for home pregnancy tests in March. From a February 2008 news release published by Nielsen:

First Comes Love, Then Comes...
Perhaps as a result of Valentine’s Day romance, more pregnancy and infertility test kits are sold approximately six weeks after Valentine’s Day than at any other time of the year. Consumers spend more than $15 million*on pregnancy and infertility test kits during the second, third and fourth weeks of March, with the third week of March ranking number one** in sales.
Notes: *Three weeks ending March 24, 2007 showed total sales of $15.4 million for pregnancy and infertility test kits in U.S. food, drug and mass merchandiser stores, including Wal-Mart. **One week ending March 24, 2007 showed total sales of $5.2 million for pregnancy and infertility test kits in U.S. food, drug and mass merchandiser stores, including Wal-Mart.

Despite Nielsen's sensational headline, births are actually highest in late summer and early autumn, as a result of pregnancies in late autumn and early winter of the prior calendar year. This trend, known as a "seasonal cycle in fecundability" is well documented in the scientific literature.

Delaying the wedding bells

As June is the unofficial national wedding month, it seems appropriate to wrap up this month with some concluding thoughts on marriage trends.

Educational attainment levels for women are at an all-time high in the U.S. Today eight percent of the female population age 15-50 has a graduate degree, 18 percent has a bachelor's degree, and nearly 60 percent have at least some college education (up to and including bachelor's and graduate degrees).

The likelihood of being married is considerably lower for lower levels of educational attainment. Less than half of women with "some college" education were married in 2009. And only one quarter of women with a less-than-high-school education are married. On the other hand, nearly 60 percent of women with a bachelor's degree and nearly 70 percent of women with a graduate degree are married.

So why the big difference?

The staff at the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that marriage is becoming a characteristic of the economically advantaged:

As marriage rates have decreased and cohabitation has become more common, marriage has become more selective of adults who are better off socioeconomically and have more education.

However, marriage doesn't "select" people. People select marriage. So I offer a counter-argument that there is larger force at work. Perhaps marriage isn't simply becoming a tradition of the well-to-do. Perhaps as more women choose to go to college, they are delaying marriage, and thus don't enter the "married" category until they achieve at least a bachelor's degree.


Source data: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005 and 2009

Let the wedding bells ring

Anyone who has ever glanced at a bridal magazine or received a wedding invitation knows that June is usually the hottest month for weddings. So in honor of all the happy couples, let's take a look at marriage statistics.

Not surprisingly, destination wedding locations have the highest marriage rates (per 1,000 population). The current rate (40.9) in Nevada is more than five times higher than the national average (6.8), and Hawaii rings in at more than double (17.9) the national average.

Some of the lowest rates, on the other hand, are in and around the nation's capitol. (With a decade of congressional infidelity scandals, the low marriage rate in D.C. is probably no surprise to readers.)

Marriage rates have been falling nationwide for the past decade, from 8.2 in 2000 to 6.8 in 2009 (data from the CDC). Falling marriage rates are part of a long-term trend toward delayed marriage. The average age at first marriage back in 1956 was only age 20 for women (age 22 for men) and has risen to age 26 for women (28 for men) today.

In marriage rates, Nevada declined the most, dropping from 72.2 in 2000 to 40.9 in 2009, and falling by more than 50 percent from a 1990 level of 99 marriages per 1,000 population. (Maybe being married by Elvis at a drive-through chapels is losing it's appeal?)

However, divorce rates are also falling. In fact, the number of "long-lasting" marriages is starting to increase. Divorce rates peaked in the years following mid-1970s changes in divorce laws, but then leveled off and fell slightly. Some of this can be attributed to lower marriage rates (fewer marriages likely lead to fewer divorces), but some is likely a result of people waiting longer to get married in the first place.

Image Credits:
Charts by author, with data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Photo courtesy of http://www.flickr.com/photos/bjornb/