Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Has flu season peaked?

By the end of December nearly every state in the nation reported widespread cases of influenza.
Source: CDC
And by the first week of January, all states were reporting at least regional cases of the flu, with the vast majority reporting widespread outbreaks.
Source: CDC
However, flu season usually peaks in February or March, not in December, and while the spread of flu appears to have slowed, epidemiologists will not know for weeks whether or not the peak of flu season has passed. The slowdown may simply be part of the ebb and flow of this year's flu season.
Source: CDC

More about the data:

In addition, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collect data from state health departments report. The first two maps below show data from the state-level reporting.

The maps are based on:
...the estimated level of geographic spread of influenza activity in their states each week through the State and Territorial Epidemiologists Reports. States report geographic spread of influenza activity as no activity, sporadic, local, regional, or widespread. These levels are defined as follows:
No Activity: No laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza and no reported increase in the number of cases of ILI.
Sporadic: Small numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases or a single laboratory-confirmed influenza outbreak has been reported, but there is no increase in cases of ILI.
Local: Outbreaks of influenza or increases in ILI cases and recent laboratory-confirmed influenza in a single region of the state.
Regional: Outbreaks of influenza or increases in ILI and recent laboratory confirmed influenza in at least two but less than half the regions of the state with recent laboratory evidence of influenza in those regions.
Widespread: Outbreaks of influenza or increases in ILI cases and recent laboratory-confirmed influenza in at least half the regions of the state with recent laboratory evidence of influenza in the state.
CDC cautions, however, that the maps reflect the "geographic spread of influenza viruses, but does not measure the severity of influenza activity."

In addition, shown on map three, CDC monitors and reports on influenza through the Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet).
Activity levels are based on the percent of outpatient visits in a state due to ILI and are compared to the average percent of ILI visits that occur during spring and fall weeks with little or no influenza virus circulation... The map uses the proportion of outpatient visits to health care providers for influenza-like illness to measure the ILI activity level within a state. It does not, however, measure the extent of geographic spread of flu within a state. Therefore, outbreaks occurring in a single city could cause the state to display high activity levels. Data collected in ILINet may disproportionately represent certain populations within a state, and therefore, may not accurately depict the full picture of influenza activity for the whole state.  
For more information CDC also provides an interactive mapping tool, Flu View.


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