Milestone

Thanks to Nathan Yau of Flowing Data and Carolina Demography's Twitter, I learned this morning that I've passed a milestone I hadn't thought of. I'm older than half the population in the U.S.

Between 37-38, you become older than the majority of Americans.@flowingdata #dataviz https://t.co/nZVAWqYE3y pic.twitter.com/sgcygYaW8w

— Carolina Demography (@ncdemography) May 20, 2016

Population pyramids (interactive)

They're not quite ready for prime-time yet, but I've been working on interactive population pyramids that allow a user to compare across regions and points in time.

Stay tuned for their official launch later this year as part of PRB's World Population Data Sheet.

Centenarians

There are more than 50,000 centenarians in the United States, according to the 2010 Census and a report on the 100-and-older population released last month by the Census Bureau.

Other interesting facts from the report:

• More than 80 percent of centenarians are women.
• The majority live in households (about one third live in nursing homes or other group quarters).
• California has the most population age 100 and older (5,921) followed by New York (4,605), and then Florida (4,090).
• Despite Florida's reputation as a retirement destination, South Dakota and Iowa have substantially higher proportions of centenarians as a share state population (0.0295 and 0.0278, respectively compared with Florida's 0.0218).

Image from Time magazine special section on "How to live to 100 years"

Demographic trends in San Diego County – new data from Census 2010

Population Growth 1910-2010
In the past 100 years, San Diego county has grown from a small city of 60,000 people to a thriving metropolitan area of more than 3 million. In San Diego’s early years Census figures show that the county’s population nearly doubled every ten years from 1910 to 1960. Between 1960 and 1990 growth slowed to an average increase of approximately 33 percent every decade. Growth slowed again in recent years, with less than a 15 percent increase 1990-2000 and only 10 percent growth from 2000-2010.

Migration Patterns
Migration was the primary driver of population growth at the beginning of the last century, but that trend has shifted considerably in recent decades. Until the late 1990s, most growth in Southern California was a result of in-migration from other parts of the United States and from other countries around the world.

However, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and a study by the University of Southern California Population Dynamics Research Group, that trend has shifted statewide, with most of the population now being, in the words of the study authors, “homegrown” (i.e. born in California).

Aging Population
As San Diego grows, it is growing older. The very first trickle in the aging wave of the Baby Boomers just turned 65 this past January. Because the Baby Boom is just now reaching this milestone, the proportion of the population age 65 and older had remained constant at 11 percent over the past two decades. However, that will shift dramatically in the next two decades.

On the younger end of the spectrum, the share of San Diego's population under the age of 18 is shrinking, from 26 percent in 2000 to 23 percent in 2010. As a result of these shifts the median age (the point at which half of the population is younger and half older) increased from 31.0 years in 1990 to 34.6 today.

Race and Ethnicity
One of the biggest demographic shifts highlighted by the 2010 Census is confirmation that San Diego is now a “majority-minority” county. This means that no single race or ethnic group accounts for more than half of the region’s population.

The Asian population, which grew fastest, increased by 34 percent (to 328,000 residents) between 2000 and 2010. The Hispanic/Latino population increased by 32 percent over the decade, and now accounts for approximately one third of the county’s total population (991,000 residents).

Conversely, the non-Hispanic White, Black, and American Indian populations all declined slightly during the decade (by 3, 5, and 8 percent, respectively)

Housing - Occupancy and Household Size
While much talk about the Census revolves around the demographic characteristics of the population, the 2010 Census also provides valuable information about neighborhood housing characteristics including occupancy rates and average household size.

In 1950, the average household size in San Diego was more than 3.1 persons per household. This decreased steadily as birth rates and average family size fell during the 1960s and 1970s, so by 1980, the region hit a low of 2.6 persons per household. However, birth rates began to rise starting in the mid-1970s, and a similar upward trend can be seen in average household size.

San Diego's lowest residential vacancy rates, not surprisingly, were during the housing boom in the early 2000s, and have risen considerably – back to rates reminiscent of the 1970s and 1980s – in the past three years. Data from the 2010 Census shows a residential vacancy rate of 6.7 percent for San Diego county.

2010 and Beyond
The demographic characteristics of the San Diego county will continue to evolve over time. San Diego is transitioning from a history of high-volume in-migration, to a more “homegrown” population, and from a relatively "young" area to a metropolitan area with an aging population.


Source data:
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010, Redistricting Files
California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit

Aging population and driving

This story in today's San Diego Union Tribune, about a fatal accident involving a 71-year-old driver, prompted me to post a piece I've been working on for a couple of weeks...

Six months ago the first wave of Baby Boomers turned 65, prompting questions about how the nation's transportation system will adapt to an aging population. There are some benefits that may arise from having an older population, and there will undoubtedly be challenges.

As the population ages we may care less about our cars. A Gallup poll in 1991 found that 20 percent of Americans found driving to be a chore. The same response in 2006 got a 40 percent boost to 28 percent. When you drill down into the details of the survey, likelihood of taking a ride “just because it’s fun” decreases substantially with age. In short, an older population is less likely to enjoy driving.

And, contrary to most road-rage induced stereotypes, older Americans also drive more safely. (However, there are some limitations to that trend, as described below.)

In their 2009 study of aggressive driving behavior, AAA found that at age 16 nearly 60 percent of drivers show aggressive behavior. By age 35 aggressive driving falls to 35 percent and by age 60 is below 27 percent.

With an already aging population, safer driving is beginning to show up in accident statistics. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation:

“in 2010 the number of traffic fatalities in America fell to the lowest levels since 1949...despite a sharp increase in the number of miles Americans drove last year - 21 billion additional miles. In addition, the rate of road fatalities in the U.S. has also dropped to its lowest level since 1949. Over the last five years, traffic deaths have declined by 25 percent…And the rate of fatalities per million miles traveled fell to 1.09 from 1.13 in 2009.”

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood credits this to “the combined efforts of DOT, states, law enforcement, safety organizations, and America's drivers who are taking personal responsibility for their driving habits.” But I also see a demographic shift at play, much as there was a demographic influence on falling crime rates, beginning in the mid-1990s.

However, as opening article implies, there are also substantial health issues that may impair the driving of older Americans.

For example, the likelihood of reporting some form of disability DOUBLES between the age groups 65-74 and 75 and older (from 25 percent at age 65 to fully half the population age 75+). Similarly, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 10 percent of older men and 15 percent of older women reported cutting back on driving due to a physical problem in the past year. And, for a combination of reasons, older drivers are likely to avoid driving in certain conditions. Older drivers tend to avoid driving at night, driving in bad weather, and (to a lesser extent) driving in heavy traffic.

All of this adds up to some very complicated issues facing the nation's transportation system. Fortunately, research is underway to better understand the implications of age-related health issues on transportation at institutes such as the Age Lab at MIT.

Transportation by generation

Yesterday I participated in a demographics forum at the U.S. Department of Transportation to discuss the issues of an aging population on transportation infrastructure and generational differences in transportation use. The video and slides from the forum have been posted by the DOT.

To view the webcast and slides, click here:

URL: http://mediasite.yorkcast.com/webcast/Viewer/?peid=17f98d9e1a2743a1a9c24b3de09a936e1d

Recession ages the labor force

The sour economy may have discouraged many job seekers into giving up the job hunt for now, but that is not the case for those age 55 and older. While labor force participation rates have fallen across most age groups, rates have actually increased for those age 55 and older. In fact, even with higher unemployment rates, the total number of U.S. workers age 55 and older has actually increased in the past two years, while those age 16-19 have suffered the greatest employment losses.

It is worth noting, however, that working at older ages is not an entirely new trend in the United States. In the 1960s and early 1970s the majority of men age 55 and older were in the workforce. That proportion did not dip below 50 percent until 1975, reached its bottom in 1993, and has been increasing since that time. According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics labor force participation in 1993 was 29 percent for men and women age 55 and older. That figure has risen to more than 40 percent today.

This trend toward longer work-life is driven by longer life expectancy, less secure retirement, and also by job satisfaction. Surveys of the population in Japan, with some of the world's highest rates of labor force participation in older populations, report that half of workers age 60 to 69 reported staying in the workforce because "working is conducive to improved health." This may be more true in today's knowledge-based economy than ever before, as working provides social connections that may fade in retirement.

Nevertheless, older workers tend to earn less than their younger counterparts. For example, workers age 65 and older make, on average, $90 less per week than those in other age groups.

With the aging of the Baby Boom population leading to rapid growth in the oldest age groups, coupled with higher rates of labor force participation, the United States can expect considerable competition in the job market for the foreseeable future. On the positive side, a higher rate of labor force participation means that companies may have an easier time retaining a workforce with many years of experience. Older workers, on the other hand, will need to keep skills sharp in order to overcome the wage gap.

Demographic Trends in San Diego: What Planners Can Expect in 2010

... article originally appeared in The Planning Journal, Spring 2010

Population Growth 1910-2010
In the past 100 years, the San Diego Region (18 cities and unincorporated county) has grown from a small city of 60,000 people to a thriving metropolitan area of 3 million. In San Diego’s early years, Census figures show that the county’s population nearly doubled every ten years from 1910 to 1960. Between 1960 and 1990 growth slowed to an average increase of approximately 33 percent every ten years. Growth slowed again in the 1990s, with increases averaging less than 15 percent in each of the past two decades.

Migration Patterns
Migration was the primary driver of population growth in San Diego’s early years. Historically, most growth in Southern California was a result of in-migration from other parts of the United States and from other countries around the world. However, according to a recent study released by the University of Southern California Population Dynamics Research Group, that trend has shifted statewide, with most of the population now being, in the words of the study authors, “homegrown” (i.e. born in California). San Diego, however, lags behind the state in this trend, with 52 percent of residents having been born outside of California, according to 2008 data from the American Community Survey.

The 2010 Census short-form does not include a question about place of birth or place of residence five years ago, as prior long-form survey questionnaires did. However, information on 2010 population characteristics provides concrete data against which migration trends can be measured. For example, knowing the 2000 Census population characteristics of a region, and the survival rate and fertility rate of the population, demographers can determine what the population in 2010 could look like in the absence of any migration. Comparing that 2010 hypothetical projection against actual 2010 Census data provides useful insights into which groups moved into or out of a community during the decade. Thus, the 2010 Census population data will provide a key benchmark for measuring migration trends.

With respect to local planning, the key point to note in migration trends is that "the future is us." The people we are planning for are ourselves, our neighbors, and our children. The years of double-digit population growth due to large in-flows of migrants appear to be over, at least for now.

Age StructureThe median age in San Diego increased from 31 years in 1990 to 33 years in 2000 and is estimated to be 35 years in 2009. 2010 Census data will likely show a median age in the mid-30s. While this may not sound like much of a change, the underlying age structure changes are dramatic. Between 1990 and 2000 the county's young population (residents under age 18) grew by 112,700, compared with population growth of only 40,600 in the population age 65 and older. This means that there were nearly three additional children in the county for every additional senior during the 1990s. In the ten years since the 2000 Census all indicators point to a reversal of that trend, with slightly more growth in the senior population than in the population under age 18.

The population is growing across all age groups, but this trend toward an aging population is here to stay. An aging population will result in changing needs and preferences for the local population. For example, older residents may have different residential structure type preferences than college students or families with children. With respect to transportation planning, traffic patterns may change as a result of more off-peak travel by retired residents. These are just a few specific examples of a much broader issue. Planners should be aware of their community's aging population needs as they update public facilities plans, transportation plans, zoning ordinances, and other plans.

2010 and Beyond
The demographic characteristics of the San Diego Region will continue to evolve over time. San Diego is transitioning from a history of high-volume in-migration, to a more “homegrown” population. The future we plan for is our own. Each generation of residents living here today enjoys longer life expectancy Longer life expectancy means that much of the region’s future population growth will be in the oldest age groups. The 2010 Census will provide a clear snapshot of the region’s changing demographic characteristics and will provide planners with plenty of food for thought for the decade ahead.